Jones: John Elway has plenty to consider entering Broncos' free agency

In the four years since John Elway took over the Denver Broncos front office, he's earned the title King of March.

As general manager, Elway has attacked free agency much in the same manner he did an opposing defense when he was a player: He's fearless, sometimes bordering on reckless, but he often wins big.

His all-in gamble three years ago to lure Peyton Manning to sign with the Broncos was his front-office version of his legendary head-first helicopter spin.

Now for the first time in his tenure atop the Broncos' front office, the most significant free agent moves for Elway could be the ones he doesn't make.

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Before the Broncos can start locking in on free agents, they must address their own players leaving Elway to make decisions about those he drafted or signed since taking over the Broncos front office in 2011.

The notable exception is wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, one of only two remaining draft picks from the Josh McDaniels Era.

Thomas has played out the five-year contract he signed as a first-round draft pick in 2010 – but the Broncos won't let him land on the free-agent market. Elway said at the NFL scouting combine last week the Broncos would place its franchise tag on Thomas should the two sides not reach an agreement on a new contract by Monday's tag deadline.

"Bottom line is, we want Demaryius," Elway said.

Of course they do.

The Broncos believe Thomas is an elite wide receiver – one with a rare combination of size, speed and a willingness to block – regardless of his quarterback.

Thomas' best three seasons came with Manning under center, though Thomas also excelled late in the 2011 season after recovering from Achilles tendon and finger injuries while catching passes from Tim Tebow. Thomas averaged 17.2 yards per catch that season, the best of his career, and had 10 catches for nearly 300 yards in two playoff games.

Even as Manning's decision to play in 2015 remains unclear, Thomas' long-term future with the Broncos should not.

If Thomas is franchise tagged, it will cost the Broncos about $13 million – though the team will try to negotiate a new, long-term deal by July 15, like it did with left tackle Ryan Clady two years ago, after Clady received the tag.

Elway has not been nearly so forthcoming about his desire to keep other pending free agents.

That includes star tight end Julius Thomas, guard/tackle Orlando Franklin or free safety Rahim Moore, all members of Elway's first draft class in 2011. There's also defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, who signed as a free agent in 2013.

All have been starters, but the only way any of them return to Denver is if they don't find better offers. The Broncos are likely to let them hit the open market March 7 when negotiations are allowed to begin so they can gauge in.

Of those four, Julius Thomas and Knighton seem the most likely to depart – moves that would seemed unfathomable just a few months ago, given both players' popularity and production.

Knighton is among the most popular players in the Broncos' locker room, but there were concerns in the front office about Knighton's ability to consistently manage his weight. Knighton played in 49% of the Broncos' defensive snaps in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.

The seemingly inevitable breakup between the Broncos and Julius Thomas could have the biggest impact in transforming the Broncos' offense. Before he suffered the ankle injury in mid-November that derailed his season, Thomas was having his second consecutive dominant year.

There was a time when he was on pace to break Rob Gronkowski's touchdown record for tight ends, proof to just how much Manning trusts Thomas in the red zone.

Manning's plans still aren't finalized thanks to outstanding issues with his contract and a required physical. But would he want Thomas back? He hasn't commented publicly, but 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons present a strong argument.

With the likely departure of impending free agent Wes Welker, Manning will go through another offseason having to get used to new teammates, in addition to the changes new head coach Gary Kubiak will make to the Broncos' offense.

These difficult, and perhaps unpopular decisions will kick off perhaps the most important offseason of Elway's tenure.

If he had the Broncos playing under a "Super Bowl-or-bust" mantra last year, the pressure will only intensify given Elway's choice to blow up the coaching staff in January.

For years now, Elway has largely been able to add and build a team that can have sustained success. But before he can reassert himself as March's biggest player, he'll have to do some painful subtraction.

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Follow Lindsay H. Jones on Twitter @ByLindsayHJones